Sunday 8 November · 21:00 · 12th matchday
Atlético de Madrid – FC Barcelona
Atlético de Madrid
2nd · attack 1.45 · defence 0.81
FC Barcelona
1st · attack 2.17 · defence 0.79
Our model makes FC Barcelona favourites for Atlético de Madrid – FC Barcelona, at 43%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Atlético de Madrid win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and FC Barcelona win 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.54 goals for Atlético de Madrid and 1.75 for FC Barcelona, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time and both teams scoring 65%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.54 for Atlético de Madrid, 1.75 for FC Barcelona.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Atlético de Madrid wins; above it, FC Barcelona wins.
| Atlético de Madrid \ FC Barcelona | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Atlético de Madrid goals in rows, FC Barcelona goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Atlético de Madrid v FC Barcelona?
FC Barcelona, at 43%. The full split is Atlético de Madrid 34%, draw 24%, FC Barcelona 43%.
What is the most likely score in Atlético de Madrid v FC Barcelona?
1–1, which comes up in 10.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atlético de Madrid v FC Barcelona?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.54 for Atlético de Madrid and 1.75 for FC Barcelona.
Will both teams score in Atlético de Madrid v FC Barcelona?
Both teams score in 65% of simulations. Atlético de Madrid keep a clean sheet or FC Barcelona fail to score in the remaining 35%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
