Friday 20 November · 21:00 · 13th matchday
Athletic Club – Espanyol
Athletic Club
7th · attack 1.04 · defence 0.89
Espanyol
14th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.06
Our model makes Athletic Club favourites for Athletic Club – Espanyol, at 52%. Kick-off 20 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Athletic Club win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Espanyol win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.49 goals for Athletic Club and 0.83 for Espanyol, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.49 for Athletic Club, 0.83 for Espanyol.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Athletic Club wins; above it, Espanyol wins.
| Athletic Club \ Espanyol | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Athletic Club goals in rows, Espanyol goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Athletic Club v Espanyol?
Athletic Club, at 52%. The full split is Athletic Club 52%, draw 27%, Espanyol 21%.
What is the most likely score in Athletic Club v Espanyol?
1–0, which comes up in 14.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Athletic Club v Espanyol?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 68% of the time. Expected goals are 1.49 for Athletic Club and 0.83 for Espanyol.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club v Espanyol?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Athletic Club keep a clean sheet or Espanyol fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
