Saturday 7 November · 18:30 · 9th matchday
VfB Stuttgart – Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart
13th · attack 1.36 · defence 1.11
Werder Bremen
8th · attack 0.98 · defence 1.31
Our model makes VfB Stuttgart favourites for VfB Stuttgart – Werder Bremen, at 63%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, VfB Stuttgart win 63% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Werder Bremen win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.28 goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.09 for Werder Bremen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.28 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.09 for Werder Bremen.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, VfB Stuttgart wins; above it, Werder Bremen wins.
| VfB Stuttgart \ Werder Bremen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
VfB Stuttgart goals in rows, Werder Bremen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart, at 63%. The full split is VfB Stuttgart 63%, draw 20%, Werder Bremen 16%.
What is the most likely score in VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen?
2–1, which comes up in 9.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.28 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.09 for Werder Bremen.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart v Werder Bremen?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet or Werder Bremen fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
