Saturday 28 November · 18:30 · 11th matchday
VfB Stuttgart – Eintracht Frankfurt
VfB Stuttgart
8th · attack 1.38 · defence 1.11
Eintracht Frankfurt
10th · attack 1.25 · defence 1.34
Our model makes VfB Stuttgart favourites for VfB Stuttgart – Eintracht Frankfurt, at 59%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, VfB Stuttgart win 59% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Eintracht Frankfurt win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.1% of simulations.
We expect 2.38 goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.39 for Eintracht Frankfurt, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 73% of the time and both teams scoring 69%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.38 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.39 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, VfB Stuttgart wins; above it, Eintracht Frankfurt wins.
| VfB Stuttgart \ Eintracht Frankfurt | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
VfB Stuttgart goals in rows, Eintracht Frankfurt goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in VfB Stuttgart v Eintracht Frankfurt?
VfB Stuttgart, at 59%. The full split is VfB Stuttgart 59%, draw 20%, Eintracht Frankfurt 21%.
What is the most likely score in VfB Stuttgart v Eintracht Frankfurt?
2–1, which comes up in 9.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in VfB Stuttgart v Eintracht Frankfurt?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 73% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 2.38 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.39 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart v Eintracht Frankfurt?
Both teams score in 69% of simulations. VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet or Eintracht Frankfurt fail to score in the remaining 31%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
