Sunday 8 November · 19:30 · 9th matchday
TSG Hoffenheim – Schalke 04
TSG Hoffenheim
14th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.38
Schalke 04
15th · attack 0.67 · defence 1.13
Our model makes TSG Hoffenheim favourites for TSG Hoffenheim – Schalke 04, at 57%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 19:30.
Across the full score distribution, TSG Hoffenheim win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Schalke 04 win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.79 goals for TSG Hoffenheim and 0.93 for Schalke 04, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.79 for TSG Hoffenheim, 0.93 for Schalke 04.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, TSG Hoffenheim wins; above it, Schalke 04 wins.
| TSG Hoffenheim \ Schalke 04 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
TSG Hoffenheim goals in rows, Schalke 04 goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in TSG Hoffenheim v Schalke 04?
TSG Hoffenheim, at 57%. The full split is TSG Hoffenheim 57%, draw 25%, Schalke 04 19%.
What is the most likely score in TSG Hoffenheim v Schalke 04?
1–1, which comes up in 11.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in TSG Hoffenheim v Schalke 04?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.79 for TSG Hoffenheim and 0.93 for Schalke 04.
Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim v Schalke 04?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. TSG Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet or Schalke 04 fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
