Saturday 21 November · 18:30 · 10th matchday
Schalke 04 – VfB Stuttgart
Schalke 04
17th · attack 0.59 · defence 1.07
VfB Stuttgart
11th · attack 1.41 · defence 1.13
Our model makes VfB Stuttgart favourites for Schalke 04 – VfB Stuttgart, at 52%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Schalke 04 win 20% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and VfB Stuttgart win 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 13.4% of simulations.
We expect 0.85 goals for Schalke 04 and 1.51 for VfB Stuttgart, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 0.85 for Schalke 04, 1.51 for VfB Stuttgart.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Schalke 04 wins; above it, VfB Stuttgart wins.
| Schalke 04 \ VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Schalke 04 goals in rows, VfB Stuttgart goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Schalke 04 v VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart, at 52%. The full split is Schalke 04 20%, draw 28%, VfB Stuttgart 52%.
What is the most likely score in Schalke 04 v VfB Stuttgart?
0–1, which comes up in 13.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Schalke 04 v VfB Stuttgart?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 0.85 for Schalke 04 and 1.51 for VfB Stuttgart.
Will both teams score in Schalke 04 v VfB Stuttgart?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Schalke 04 keep a clean sheet or VfB Stuttgart fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 2 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
