Sunday 29 November · 15:30 · 11th matchday
SC Freiburg – RB Leipzig
SC Freiburg
3rd · attack 1.15 · defence 1.15
RB Leipzig
4th · attack 1.47 · defence 1.05
Our model makes RB Leipzig favourites for SC Freiburg – RB Leipzig, at 41%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, SC Freiburg win 35% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and RB Leipzig win 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.54 goals for SC Freiburg and 1.69 for RB Leipzig, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 65%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.54 for SC Freiburg, 1.69 for RB Leipzig.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, SC Freiburg wins; above it, RB Leipzig wins.
| SC Freiburg \ RB Leipzig | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
SC Freiburg goals in rows, RB Leipzig goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig, at 41%. The full split is SC Freiburg 35%, draw 25%, RB Leipzig 41%.
What is the most likely score in SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig?
1–1, which comes up in 11.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.54 for SC Freiburg and 1.69 for RB Leipzig.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg v RB Leipzig?
Both teams score in 65% of simulations. SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet or RB Leipzig fail to score in the remaining 35%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
