Sunday 8 November · 17:30 · 9th matchday
SC Freiburg – FC Union Berlin
SC Freiburg
3rd · attack 1.14 · defence 1.18
FC Union Berlin
17th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.28
Our model makes SC Freiburg favourites for SC Freiburg – FC Union Berlin, at 57%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 17:30.
Across the full score distribution, SC Freiburg win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and FC Union Berlin win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.85 goals for SC Freiburg and 1.00 for FC Union Berlin, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.85 for SC Freiburg, 1.00 for FC Union Berlin.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, SC Freiburg wins; above it, FC Union Berlin wins.
| SC Freiburg \ FC Union Berlin | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
SC Freiburg goals in rows, FC Union Berlin goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in SC Freiburg v FC Union Berlin?
SC Freiburg, at 57%. The full split is SC Freiburg 57%, draw 24%, FC Union Berlin 19%.
What is the most likely score in SC Freiburg v FC Union Berlin?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in SC Freiburg v FC Union Berlin?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.85 for SC Freiburg and 1.00 for FC Union Berlin.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg v FC Union Berlin?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet or FC Union Berlin fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
