Saturday 7 November · 15:30 · 9th matchday
RB Leipzig – FC Augsburg
RB Leipzig
7th · attack 1.40 · defence 1.07
FC Augsburg
10th · attack 1.03 · defence 1.28
Our model makes RB Leipzig favourites for RB Leipzig – FC Augsburg, at 64%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, RB Leipzig win 64% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and FC Augsburg win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.29 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.10 for FC Augsburg, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.29 for RB Leipzig, 1.10 for FC Augsburg.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, RB Leipzig wins; above it, FC Augsburg wins.
| RB Leipzig \ FC Augsburg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
RB Leipzig goals in rows, FC Augsburg goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in RB Leipzig v FC Augsburg?
RB Leipzig, at 64%. The full split is RB Leipzig 64%, draw 20%, FC Augsburg 16%.
What is the most likely score in RB Leipzig v FC Augsburg?
2–1, which comes up in 9.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in RB Leipzig v FC Augsburg?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 2.29 for RB Leipzig and 1.10 for FC Augsburg.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig v FC Augsburg?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet or FC Augsburg fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
