Saturday 28 November · 15:30 · 11th matchday
Paderborn – Schalke 04
Paderborn
13th · attack 0.71 · defence 0.99
Schalke 04
17th · attack 0.60 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Paderborn favourites for Paderborn – Schalke 04, at 43%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, Paderborn win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 36% and Schalke 04 win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–0, in 21.3% of simulations.
We expect 0.99 goals for Paderborn and 0.59 for Schalke 04, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 21% of the time and both teams scoring 29%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 0.99 for Paderborn, 0.59 for Schalke 04.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Paderborn wins; above it, Schalke 04 wins.
| Paderborn \ Schalke 04 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 20 | 13 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Paderborn goals in rows, Schalke 04 goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Paderborn v Schalke 04?
Paderborn, at 43%. The full split is Paderborn 43%, draw 36%, Schalke 04 21%.
What is the most likely score in Paderborn v Schalke 04?
0–0, which comes up in 21.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paderborn v Schalke 04?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 21% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 48% of the time. Expected goals are 0.99 for Paderborn and 0.59 for Schalke 04.
Will both teams score in Paderborn v Schalke 04?
Both teams score in 29% of simulations. Paderborn keep a clean sheet or Schalke 04 fail to score in the remaining 71%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
