Saturday 28 November · 15:30 · 11th matchday
Hamburger SV – FC Bayern München
Hamburger SV
11th · attack 0.87 · defence 1.30
FC Bayern München
1st · attack 2.25 · defence 0.87
Our model makes FC Bayern München favourites for Hamburger SV – FC Bayern München, at 76%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, Hamburger SV win 9% of the time, the draw comes up 14% and FC Bayern München win 76%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2, in 8.6% of simulations.
We expect 0.98 goals for Hamburger SV and 2.92 for FC Bayern München, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 75% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 0.98 for Hamburger SV, 2.92 for FC Bayern München.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Hamburger SV wins; above it, FC Bayern München wins.
| Hamburger SV \ FC Bayern München | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Hamburger SV goals in rows, FC Bayern München goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Hamburger SV v FC Bayern München?
FC Bayern München, at 76%. The full split is Hamburger SV 9%, draw 14%, FC Bayern München 76%.
What is the most likely score in Hamburger SV v FC Bayern München?
0–2, which comes up in 8.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hamburger SV v FC Bayern München?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 75% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 91% of the time. Expected goals are 0.98 for Hamburger SV and 2.92 for FC Bayern München.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV v FC Bayern München?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet or FC Bayern München fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
