Friday 6 November · 20:30 · 9th matchday
Hamburger SV – Borussia Mönchengladbach
Hamburger SV
13th · attack 0.87 · defence 1.35
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.38
Our model makes Hamburger SV favourites for Hamburger SV – Borussia Mönchengladbach, at 39%. Kick-off 6 November 2026, 20:30.
Across the full score distribution, Hamburger SV win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Borussia Mönchengladbach win 34%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.53 goals for Hamburger SV and 1.41 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.53 for Hamburger SV, 1.41 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Hamburger SV wins; above it, Borussia Mönchengladbach wins.
| Hamburger SV \ Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Hamburger SV goals in rows, Borussia Mönchengladbach goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Hamburger SV, at 39%. The full split is Hamburger SV 39%, draw 26%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 34%.
What is the most likely score in Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1–1, which comes up in 12.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.53 for Hamburger SV and 1.41 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet or Borussia Mönchengladbach fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 17 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
