Saturday 7 November · 15:30 · 9th matchday
FSV Mainz 05 – FC Bayern München
FSV Mainz 05
5th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.14
FC Bayern München
1st · attack 2.25 · defence 0.87
Our model makes FC Bayern München favourites for FSV Mainz 05 – FC Bayern München, at 66%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, FSV Mainz 05 win 15% of the time, the draw comes up 18% and FC Bayern München win 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 9.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.21 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.57 for FC Bayern München, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 73% of the time and both teams scoring 65%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.21 for FSV Mainz 05, 2.57 for FC Bayern München.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FSV Mainz 05 wins; above it, FC Bayern München wins.
| FSV Mainz 05 \ FC Bayern München | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
FSV Mainz 05 goals in rows, FC Bayern München goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München?
FC Bayern München, at 66%. The full split is FSV Mainz 05 15%, draw 18%, FC Bayern München 66%.
What is the most likely score in FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München?
1–2, which comes up in 9.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 73% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 1.21 for FSV Mainz 05 and 2.57 for FC Bayern München.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 v FC Bayern München?
Both teams score in 65% of simulations. FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet or FC Bayern München fail to score in the remaining 35%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
