Saturday 21 November · 15:30 · 10th matchday
FC Union Berlin – RB Leipzig
FC Union Berlin
16th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.25
RB Leipzig
4th · attack 1.43 · defence 1.03
Our model makes RB Leipzig favourites for FC Union Berlin – RB Leipzig, at 53%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, FC Union Berlin win 23% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and RB Leipzig win 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.11 goals for FC Union Berlin and 1.80 for RB Leipzig, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.11 for FC Union Berlin, 1.80 for RB Leipzig.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Union Berlin wins; above it, RB Leipzig wins.
| FC Union Berlin \ RB Leipzig | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
FC Union Berlin goals in rows, RB Leipzig goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Union Berlin v RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig, at 53%. The full split is FC Union Berlin 23%, draw 25%, RB Leipzig 53%.
What is the most likely score in FC Union Berlin v RB Leipzig?
1–1, which comes up in 11.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Union Berlin v RB Leipzig?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.11 for FC Union Berlin and 1.80 for RB Leipzig.
Will both teams score in FC Union Berlin v RB Leipzig?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. FC Union Berlin keep a clean sheet or RB Leipzig fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 2 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
