Saturday 28 November · 15:30 · 11th matchday
FC Köln – Elversberg
FC Köln
15th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.33
Elversberg
7th · attack 1.31 · defence 1.46
Our model makes Elversberg favourites for FC Köln – Elversberg, at 39% — but only 1.2% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, FC Köln win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Elversberg win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.72 goals for FC Köln and 1.74 for Elversberg, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time and both teams scoring 68%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.72 for FC Köln, 1.74 for Elversberg.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Köln wins; above it, Elversberg wins.
| FC Köln \ Elversberg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
FC Köln goals in rows, Elversberg goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Köln v Elversberg?
Elversberg, at 39%. The full split is FC Köln 38%, draw 24%, Elversberg 39%.
What is the most likely score in FC Köln v Elversberg?
1–1, which comes up in 10.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Köln v Elversberg?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 87% of the time. Expected goals are 1.72 for FC Köln and 1.74 for Elversberg.
Will both teams score in FC Köln v Elversberg?
Both teams score in 68% of simulations. FC Köln keep a clean sheet or Elversberg fail to score in the remaining 32%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
