Sunday 8 November · 15:30 · 9th matchday
FC Köln – Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Köln
12th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.36
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
4th · attack 1.51 · defence 1.00
Our model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen favourites for FC Köln – Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 56%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, FC Köln win 21% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Bayer 04 Leverkusen win 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.21 goals for FC Köln and 2.05 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.21 for FC Köln, 2.05 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Köln wins; above it, Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins.
| FC Köln \ Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
FC Köln goals in rows, Bayer 04 Leverkusen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Köln v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 56%. The full split is FC Köln 21%, draw 22%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 56%.
What is the most likely score in FC Köln v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
1–1, which comes up in 10.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Köln v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.21 for FC Köln and 2.05 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Will both teams score in FC Köln v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. FC Köln keep a clean sheet or Bayer 04 Leverkusen fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
