Friday 20 November · 20:30 · 10th matchday
FC Bayern München – FC Köln
FC Bayern München
1st · attack 2.27 · defence 0.88
FC Köln
13th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.33
Our model makes FC Bayern München favourites for FC Bayern München – FC Köln, at 89%. Kick-off 20 November 2026, 20:30.
Across the full score distribution, FC Bayern München win 89% of the time, the draw comes up 8% and FC Köln win 4%. The single most likely scoreline is 3–0, in 9.0% of simulations.
We expect 3.84 goals for FC Bayern München and 0.81 for FC Köln, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 84% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 3.84 for FC Bayern München, 0.81 for FC Köln.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Bayern München wins; above it, FC Köln wins.
| FC Bayern München \ FC Köln | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 2 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
FC Bayern München goals in rows, FC Köln goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Bayern München v FC Köln?
FC Bayern München, at 89%. The full split is FC Bayern München 89%, draw 8%, FC Köln 4%.
What is the most likely score in FC Bayern München v FC Köln?
3–0, which comes up in 9.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Bayern München v FC Köln?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 84% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 95% of the time. Expected goals are 3.84 for FC Bayern München and 0.81 for FC Köln.
Will both teams score in FC Bayern München v FC Köln?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. FC Bayern München keep a clean sheet or FC Köln fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 2 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
