Saturday 21 November · 15:30 · 10th matchday
Borussia Mönchengladbach – Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.35
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · attack 1.45 · defence 0.86
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund favourites for Borussia Mönchengladbach – Borussia Dortmund, at 56%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, Borussia Mönchengladbach win 21% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Borussia Dortmund win 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.13 goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.96 for Borussia Dortmund, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.13 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.96 for Borussia Dortmund.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Borussia Mönchengladbach wins; above it, Borussia Dortmund wins.
| Borussia Mönchengladbach \ Borussia Dortmund | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals in rows, Borussia Dortmund goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund, at 56%. The full split is Borussia Mönchengladbach 21%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 56%.
What is the most likely score in Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund?
1–1, which comes up in 10.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.13 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.96 for Borussia Dortmund.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet or Borussia Dortmund fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 2 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
