Sunday 29 November · 19:30 · 11th matchday
Borussia Dortmund – Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Borussia Dortmund
2nd · attack 1.43 · defence 0.86
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
5th · attack 1.48 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund favourites for Borussia Dortmund – Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 52%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 19:30.
Across the full score distribution, Borussia Dortmund win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Bayer 04 Leverkusen win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.94 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.27 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time and both teams scoring 62%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.94 for Borussia Dortmund, 1.27 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Borussia Dortmund wins; above it, Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins.
| Borussia Dortmund \ Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Borussia Dortmund goals in rows, Bayer 04 Leverkusen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Borussia Dortmund v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund, at 52%. The full split is Borussia Dortmund 52%, draw 23%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 24%.
What is the most likely score in Borussia Dortmund v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
1–1, which comes up in 10.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Borussia Dortmund v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 1.94 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.27 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet or Bayer 04 Leverkusen fail to score in the remaining 38%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
