Saturday 21 November · 15:30 · 10th matchday
Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Paderborn
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
6th · attack 1.49 · defence 1.06
Paderborn
14th · attack 0.66 · defence 0.93
Our model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen favourites for Bayer 04 Leverkusen – Paderborn, at 62%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 15:30.
Across the full score distribution, Bayer 04 Leverkusen win 62% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Paderborn win 13%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.77 goals for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 0.69 for Paderborn, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 42%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.77 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 0.69 for Paderborn.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins; above it, Paderborn wins.
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen \ Paderborn | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 14 | 11 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Bayer 04 Leverkusen goals in rows, Paderborn goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Paderborn?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 62%. The full split is Bayer 04 Leverkusen 62%, draw 24%, Paderborn 13%.
What is the most likely score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Paderborn?
1–0, which comes up in 14.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Paderborn?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.77 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen and 0.69 for Paderborn.
Will both teams score in Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Paderborn?
Both teams score in 42% of simulations. Bayer 04 Leverkusen keep a clean sheet or Paderborn fail to score in the remaining 58%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 2 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
