Friday 27 November · 20:45 · 13th matchday
Venezia – Bologna
Venezia
19th · attack 0.72 · defence 1.33
Bologna
8th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.07
Our model makes Bologna favourites for Venezia – Bologna, at 53%. Kick-off 27 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Venezia win 21% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Bologna win 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 14.2% of simulations.
We expect 0.86 goals for Venezia and 1.53 for Bologna, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 0.86 for Venezia, 1.53 for Bologna.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Venezia wins; above it, Bologna wins.
| Venezia \ Bologna | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Venezia goals in rows, Bologna goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Venezia v Bologna?
Bologna, at 53%. The full split is Venezia 21%, draw 26%, Bologna 53%.
What is the most likely score in Venezia v Bologna?
0–1, which comes up in 14.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Venezia v Bologna?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 43% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 0.86 for Venezia and 1.53 for Bologna.
Will both teams score in Venezia v Bologna?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Venezia keep a clean sheet or Bologna fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
