Modelling · Italy
Serie A
The teams
On the left, what happened; on the right, what the model makes of it. Goals per match are observed averages; attack and defence are estimates, adjusted for the quality of the opponents faced.
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | GF | GA | GF/m | GA/m | Attack | Defence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 5 | 13 | 14 | 3 | 2.80 | 0.60 | 1.51 | 0.78 |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 13 | 15 | 8 | 3.00 | 1.60 | 1.97 | 0.91 |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1.60 | 0.60 | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.93 | 1.10 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 2.00 | 0.80 | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| 6 |  Frosinonepromoted | 5 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.23 | 0.99 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 5 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 1.32 | 0.82 |
| 8 |  Como | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 1.80 | 1.20 | 1.41 | 0.86 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.28 | 0.85 |
| 10 |  Sassuolo | 5 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.13 | 1.24 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 5 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 1.28 | 0.90 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 5 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.72 | 1.22 |
| 13 |  Udinese | 5 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.05 | 1.20 |
| 14 |  Torino | 5 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.99 | 1.24 |
| 15 |  Parma | 5 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.76 | 1.10 |
| 16 |  Monzapromoted | 5 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 1.60 | 2.40 | 0.94 | 1.59 |
| 17 |  Fiorentina | 5 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 1.20 | 2.40 | 1.09 | 1.19 |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 1.07 | 1.06 |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0.60 | 2.00 | 0.91 | 1.19 |
| 20 |  Veneziapromoted | 5 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 0.80 | 2.60 | 0.78 | 1.58 |
A promoted side that has played three matches does not carry three matches of information: its estimate is shrunk towards the average level of a promoted side, measured over 97 promotions observed since 2019.