Modelling · Italy
Serie A
Table and projections
Computed on
September 27, 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 5 | 13 | +11 | 27% | 77.667–88 | 0% |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 13 | +7 | 57% | 82.273–91 | 0% |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 13 | +5 | 0% | 60.350–70 | 0% |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 12 | +3 | 0% | 50.941–61 | 1% |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 11 | +6 | 2% | 65.055–75 | 0% |
| 6 |  Frosinonepromoted | 5 | 10 | +5 | 3% | 59.344–75 | 1% |
| 7 |  Juventus | 5 | 10 | +4 | 4% | 67.557–78 | 0% |
| 8 |  Como | 5 | 10 | +3 | 6% | 69.859–80 | 0% |
| 9 |  Napoli | 5 | 7 | +1 | 1% | 63.254–73 | 0% |
| 10 |  Sassuolo | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 47.938–58 | 4% |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 5 | 6 | -2 | 1% | 61.351–71 | 0% |
| 12 |  Lecce | 5 | 6 | -5 | 0% | 35.727–45 | 43% |
| 13 |  Udinese | 5 | 4 | -3 | 0% | 44.234–54 | 9% |
| 14 |  Torino | 5 | 4 | -3 | 0% | 41.632–52 | 16% |
| 15 |  Parma | 5 | 4 | -3 | 0% | 37.728–47 | 30% |
| 16 |  Monzapromoted | 5 | 4 | -4 | 0% | 32.424–41 | 62% |
| 17 |  Fiorentina | 5 | 4 | -6 | 0% | 46.236–57 | 7% |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 2 | -3 | 0% | 46.937–57 | 5% |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 1 | -7 | 0% | 37.728–48 | 31% |
| 20 |  Veneziapromoted | 5 | 0 | -9 | 0% | 24.616–34 | 90% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 2,674 matches, with a 240-day half-life — an effective sample of 699. The points interval covers 80% of simulated seasons.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
1234567891011121314151617181920Inter572610Roma27341796Como6132017141085Juventus9161715131075AC Milan51114151413107Napoli8121415151395Atalanta69111414141175Lazio57101214141396Frosinone578889998755Cagliari58111414121075Sassuolo58111213111086Bologna71113131211975Fiorentina6911121211986Udinese579111212111075Torino579111213121186Parma57912141514115Genoa57912141414125Lecce5710131618177Monza6914202716Venezia581864
Inter572610Roma27341796Como6132017141085Juventus9161715131075AC Milan51114151413107Napoli8121415151395Atalanta69111414141175Lazio57101214141396Frosinone578889998755Cagliari58111414121075Sassuolo58111213111086Bologna71113131211975Fiorentina6911121211986Udinese579111212111075Torino579111213121186Parma57912141514115Genoa57912141414125Lecce5710131618177Monza6914202716Venezia581864The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Roma2.5eComo4.5eInter1.6e