Sunday 29 November · 12:30 · 13th matchday
Udinese – Fiorentina
Udinese
20th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.34
Fiorentina
15th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.26
Our model makes Fiorentina favourites for Udinese – Fiorentina, at 42%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 12:30.
Across the full score distribution, Udinese win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Fiorentina win 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.32 goals for Udinese and 1.53 for Fiorentina, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.32 for Udinese, 1.53 for Fiorentina.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Udinese wins; above it, Fiorentina wins.
| Udinese \ Fiorentina | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Udinese goals in rows, Fiorentina goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Udinese v Fiorentina?
Fiorentina, at 42%. The full split is Udinese 33%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 42%.
What is the most likely score in Udinese v Fiorentina?
1–1, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Udinese v Fiorentina?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.32 for Udinese and 1.53 for Fiorentina.
Will both teams score in Udinese v Fiorentina?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Udinese keep a clean sheet or Fiorentina fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
