Saturday 7 November · 15:00 · 11th matchday
Torino – Lecce
Torino
12th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.22
Lecce
13th · attack 0.72 · defence 1.23
Our model makes Torino favourites for Torino – Lecce, at 49%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Torino win 49% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Lecce win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.41 goals for Torino and 0.88 for Lecce, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.41 for Torino, 0.88 for Lecce.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Torino wins; above it, Lecce wins.
| Torino \ Lecce | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Torino goals in rows, Lecce goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Torino v Lecce?
Torino, at 49%. The full split is Torino 49%, draw 27%, Lecce 24%.
What is the most likely score in Torino v Lecce?
1–0, which comes up in 14.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Torino v Lecce?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 1.41 for Torino and 0.88 for Lecce.
Will both teams score in Torino v Lecce?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Torino keep a clean sheet or Lecce fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
