Saturday 28 November · 18:00 · 13th matchday
Torino – Lazio
Torino
11th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.25
Lazio
1st · attack 1.23 · defence 0.93
Our model makes Lazio favourites for Torino – Lazio, at 49%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Torino win 26% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Lazio win 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.04 goals for Torino and 1.55 for Lazio, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.04 for Torino, 1.55 for Lazio.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Torino wins; above it, Lazio wins.
| Torino \ Lazio | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Torino goals in rows, Lazio goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Torino v Lazio?
Lazio, at 49%. The full split is Torino 26%, draw 25%, Lazio 49%.
What is the most likely score in Torino v Lazio?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Torino v Lazio?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.04 for Torino and 1.55 for Lazio.
Will both teams score in Torino v Lazio?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Torino keep a clean sheet or Lazio fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
