Sunday 29 November · 15:00 · 13th matchday
Sassuolo – Napoli
Sassuolo
17th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.47
Napoli
10th · attack 1.29 · defence 0.89
Our model makes Napoli favourites for Sassuolo – Napoli, at 57%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Sassuolo win 21% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Napoli win 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.08 goals for Sassuolo and 1.91 for Napoli, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.08 for Sassuolo, 1.91 for Napoli.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sassuolo wins; above it, Napoli wins.
| Sassuolo \ Napoli | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sassuolo goals in rows, Napoli goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sassuolo v Napoli?
Napoli, at 57%. The full split is Sassuolo 21%, draw 22%, Napoli 57%.
What is the most likely score in Sassuolo v Napoli?
1–1, which comes up in 10.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sassuolo v Napoli?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.08 for Sassuolo and 1.91 for Napoli.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo v Napoli?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Sassuolo keep a clean sheet or Napoli fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
