Sunday 22 November · 15:00 · 12th matchday
Sassuolo – Genoa
Sassuolo
17th · attack 1.12 · defence 1.47
Genoa
11th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.12
Our model makes Sassuolo favourites for Sassuolo – Genoa, at 38% — but only 1.7% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 22 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Sassuolo win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Genoa win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.38 goals for Sassuolo and 1.34 for Genoa, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.38 for Sassuolo, 1.34 for Genoa.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sassuolo wins; above it, Genoa wins.
| Sassuolo \ Genoa | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sassuolo goals in rows, Genoa goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sassuolo v Genoa?
Sassuolo, at 38%. The full split is Sassuolo 38%, draw 26%, Genoa 36%.
What is the most likely score in Sassuolo v Genoa?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sassuolo v Genoa?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.38 for Sassuolo and 1.34 for Genoa.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo v Genoa?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Sassuolo keep a clean sheet or Genoa fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
