Sunday 29 November · 18:00 · 13th matchday
Roma – Monza
Roma
3rd · attack 1.60 · defence 0.82
Monza
18th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.66
Our model makes Roma favourites for Roma – Monza, at 80%. Kick-off 29 November 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Roma win 80% of the time, the draw comes up 12% and Monza win 8%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 2.94 goals for Roma and 0.84 for Monza, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 73% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.94 for Roma, 0.84 for Monza.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Roma wins; above it, Monza wins.
| Roma \ Monza | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Roma goals in rows, Monza goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Roma v Monza?
Roma, at 80%. The full split is Roma 80%, draw 12%, Monza 8%.
What is the most likely score in Roma v Monza?
2–0, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Roma v Monza?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 73% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 89% of the time. Expected goals are 2.94 for Roma and 0.84 for Monza.
Will both teams score in Roma v Monza?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Roma keep a clean sheet or Monza fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
