Saturday 7 November · 18:00 · 11th matchday
Parma – Bologna
Parma
17th · attack 0.74 · defence 1.10
Bologna
14th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.07
Our model makes Bologna favourites for Parma – Bologna, at 43%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Parma win 28% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Bologna win 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 14.7% of simulations.
We expect 0.90 goals for Parma and 1.19 for Bologna, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 35% of the time and both teams scoring 41%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 0.90 for Parma, 1.19 for Bologna.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Parma wins; above it, Bologna wins.
| Parma \ Bologna | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Parma goals in rows, Bologna goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Parma v Bologna?
Bologna, at 43%. The full split is Parma 28%, draw 30%, Bologna 43%.
What is the most likely score in Parma v Bologna?
0–1, which comes up in 14.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Parma v Bologna?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 35% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 62% of the time. Expected goals are 0.90 for Parma and 1.19 for Bologna.
Will both teams score in Parma v Bologna?
Both teams score in 41% of simulations. Parma keep a clean sheet or Bologna fail to score in the remaining 59%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
