Sunday 8 November · 12:30 · 11th matchday
Napoli – Lazio
Napoli
9th · attack 1.26 · defence 0.83
Lazio
2nd · attack 1.14 · defence 0.90
Our model makes Napoli favourites for Napoli – Lazio, at 44%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 12:30.
Across the full score distribution, Napoli win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Lazio win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.27 goals for Napoli and 0.94 for Lazio, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.27 for Napoli, 0.94 for Lazio.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Napoli wins; above it, Lazio wins.
| Napoli \ Lazio | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Napoli goals in rows, Lazio goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Napoli v Lazio?
Napoli, at 44%. The full split is Napoli 44%, draw 29%, Lazio 27%.
What is the most likely score in Napoli v Lazio?
1–0, which comes up in 13.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Napoli v Lazio?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 38% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 65% of the time. Expected goals are 1.27 for Napoli and 0.94 for Lazio.
Will both teams score in Napoli v Lazio?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Napoli keep a clean sheet or Lazio fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
