Monday 23 November · 20:45 · 12th matchday
Monza – Fiorentina
Monza
18th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.72
Fiorentina
16th · attack 1.12 · defence 1.25
Our model makes Fiorentina favourites for Monza – Fiorentina, at 49%. Kick-off 23 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Monza win 29% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Fiorentina win 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.46 goals for Monza and 1.93 for Fiorentina, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 66%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.46 for Monza, 1.93 for Fiorentina.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Monza wins; above it, Fiorentina wins.
| Monza \ Fiorentina | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Monza goals in rows, Fiorentina goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Monza v Fiorentina?
Fiorentina, at 49%. The full split is Monza 29%, draw 22%, Fiorentina 49%.
What is the most likely score in Monza v Fiorentina?
1–1, which comes up in 9.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Monza v Fiorentina?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 1.46 for Monza and 1.93 for Fiorentina.
Will both teams score in Monza v Fiorentina?
Both teams score in 66% of simulations. Monza keep a clean sheet or Fiorentina fail to score in the remaining 34%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
