Saturday 21 November · 15:00 · 12th matchday
Lazio – Lecce
Lazio
1st · attack 1.24 · defence 0.95
Lecce
14th · attack 0.74 · defence 1.31
Our model makes Lazio favourites for Lazio – Lecce, at 63%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Lazio win 63% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Lecce win 14%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 15.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.78 goals for Lazio and 0.70 for Lecce, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 42%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.78 for Lazio, 0.70 for Lecce.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lazio wins; above it, Lecce wins.
| Lazio \ Lecce | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Lazio goals in rows, Lecce goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lazio v Lecce?
Lazio, at 63%. The full split is Lazio 63%, draw 22%, Lecce 14%.
What is the most likely score in Lazio v Lecce?
1–0, which comes up in 15.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lazio v Lecce?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.78 for Lazio and 0.70 for Lecce.
Will both teams score in Lazio v Lecce?
Both teams score in 42% of simulations. Lazio keep a clean sheet or Lecce fail to score in the remaining 58%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
