Saturday 28 November · 20:45 · 13th matchday
Inter – Genoa
Inter
2nd · attack 1.88 · defence 0.88
Genoa
13th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Inter favourites for Inter – Genoa, at 72%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Inter win 72% of the time, the draw comes up 17% and Genoa win 11%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.7% of simulations.
We expect 2.36 goals for Inter and 0.81 for Genoa, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 2.36 for Inter, 0.81 for Genoa.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Inter wins; above it, Genoa wins.
| Inter \ Genoa | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Inter goals in rows, Genoa goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Inter v Genoa?
Inter, at 72%. The full split is Inter 72%, draw 17%, Genoa 11%.
What is the most likely score in Inter v Genoa?
2–0, which comes up in 11.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Inter v Genoa?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 2.36 for Inter and 0.81 for Genoa.
Will both teams score in Inter v Genoa?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Inter keep a clean sheet or Genoa fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
