Sunday 8 November · 18:00 · 11th matchday
Inter – Como
Inter
1st · attack 1.99 · defence 0.89
Como
5th · attack 1.40 · defence 0.83
Our model makes Inter favourites for Inter – Como, at 51%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Inter win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Como win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.84 goals for Inter and 1.25 for Como, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.84 for Inter, 1.25 for Como.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Inter wins; above it, Como wins.
| Inter \ Como | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Inter goals in rows, Como goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Inter v Como?
Inter, at 51%. The full split is Inter 51%, draw 23%, Como 26%.
What is the most likely score in Inter v Como?
1–1, which comes up in 10.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Inter v Como?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.84 for Inter and 1.25 for Como.
Will both teams score in Inter v Como?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Inter keep a clean sheet or Como fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
