Sunday 8 November · 15:00 · 11th matchday
Genoa – AC Milan
Genoa
18th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.18
AC Milan
4th · attack 1.32 · defence 0.92
Our model makes AC Milan favourites for Genoa – AC Milan, at 52%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Genoa win 22% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and AC Milan win 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 13.0% of simulations.
We expect 0.92 goals for Genoa and 1.56 for AC Milan, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 0.92 for Genoa, 1.56 for AC Milan.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Genoa wins; above it, AC Milan wins.
| Genoa \ AC Milan | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Genoa goals in rows, AC Milan goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Genoa v AC Milan?
AC Milan, at 52%. The full split is Genoa 22%, draw 26%, AC Milan 52%.
What is the most likely score in Genoa v AC Milan?
0–1, which comes up in 13.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Genoa v AC Milan?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 0.92 for Genoa and 1.56 for AC Milan.
Will both teams score in Genoa v AC Milan?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Genoa keep a clean sheet or AC Milan fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
