Saturday 28 November · 15:00 · 13th matchday
Frosinone – Parma
Frosinone
6th · attack 1.56 · defence 1.26
Parma
16th · attack 0.74 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Frosinone favourites for Frosinone – Parma, at 61%. Kick-off 28 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Frosinone win 61% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Parma win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.95 goals for Frosinone and 0.93 for Parma, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.95 for Frosinone, 0.93 for Parma.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Frosinone wins; above it, Parma wins.
| Frosinone \ Parma | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Frosinone goals in rows, Parma goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Frosinone v Parma?
Frosinone, at 61%. The full split is Frosinone 61%, draw 21%, Parma 17%.
What is the most likely score in Frosinone v Parma?
1–0, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Frosinone v Parma?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.95 for Frosinone and 0.93 for Parma.
Will both teams score in Frosinone v Parma?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Frosinone keep a clean sheet or Parma fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
