Sunday 8 November · 20:45 · 11th matchday
Fiorentina – Juventus
Fiorentina
19th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.24
Juventus
8th · attack 1.25 · defence 0.86
Our model makes Juventus favourites for Fiorentina – Juventus, at 49%. Kick-off 8 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Fiorentina win 25% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Juventus win 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.04 goals for Fiorentina and 1.55 for Juventus, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.04 for Fiorentina, 1.55 for Juventus.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Fiorentina wins; above it, Juventus wins.
| Fiorentina \ Juventus | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Fiorentina goals in rows, Juventus goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Fiorentina v Juventus?
Juventus, at 49%. The full split is Fiorentina 25%, draw 25%, Juventus 49%.
What is the most likely score in Fiorentina v Juventus?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fiorentina v Juventus?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.04 for Fiorentina and 1.55 for Juventus.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina v Juventus?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Fiorentina keep a clean sheet or Juventus fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 19 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
