Saturday 21 November · 15:00 · 12th matchday
Como – Cagliari
Como
4th · attack 1.36 · defence 0.79
Cagliari
12th · attack 0.88 · defence 1.25
Our model makes Como favourites for Como – Cagliari, at 65%. Kick-off 21 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Como win 65% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Cagliari win 13%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.86 goals for Como and 0.69 for Cagliari, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 42%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.86 for Como, 0.69 for Cagliari.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Como wins; above it, Cagliari wins.
| Como \ Cagliari | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Como goals in rows, Cagliari goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Como v Cagliari?
Como, at 65%. The full split is Como 65%, draw 21%, Cagliari 13%.
What is the most likely score in Como v Cagliari?
1–0, which comes up in 14.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Como v Cagliari?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.86 for Como and 0.69 for Cagliari.
Will both teams score in Como v Cagliari?
Both teams score in 42% of simulations. Como keep a clean sheet or Cagliari fail to score in the remaining 58%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
