Saturday 7 November · 15:00 · 11th matchday
Cagliari – Frosinone
Cagliari
5th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.08
Frosinone
4th · attack 1.33 · defence 1.18
Our model makes Frosinone favourites for Cagliari – Frosinone, at 41%. Kick-off 7 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Cagliari win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Frosinone win 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.25 goals for Cagliari and 1.44 for Frosinone, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.25 for Cagliari, 1.44 for Frosinone.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Cagliari wins; above it, Frosinone wins.
| Cagliari \ Frosinone | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Cagliari goals in rows, Frosinone goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Cagliari v Frosinone?
Frosinone, at 41%. The full split is Cagliari 33%, draw 26%, Frosinone 41%.
What is the most likely score in Cagliari v Frosinone?
1–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cagliari v Frosinone?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.25 for Cagliari and 1.44 for Frosinone.
Will both teams score in Cagliari v Frosinone?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Cagliari keep a clean sheet or Frosinone fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 18 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
