Monday 30 November · 20:45 · 13th matchday
Cagliari – AC Milan
Cagliari
9th · attack 0.87 · defence 1.19
AC Milan
4th · attack 1.35 · defence 0.95
Our model makes AC Milan favourites for Cagliari – AC Milan, at 54%. Kick-off 30 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Cagliari win 22% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and AC Milan win 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–1, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 0.93 goals for Cagliari and 1.61 for AC Milan, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 0.93 for Cagliari, 1.61 for AC Milan.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Cagliari wins; above it, AC Milan wins.
| Cagliari \ AC Milan | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Cagliari goals in rows, AC Milan goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Cagliari v AC Milan?
AC Milan, at 54%. The full split is Cagliari 22%, draw 25%, AC Milan 54%.
What is the most likely score in Cagliari v AC Milan?
0–1, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Cagliari v AC Milan?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 0.93 for Cagliari and 1.61 for AC Milan.
Will both teams score in Cagliari v AC Milan?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. Cagliari keep a clean sheet or AC Milan fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 9 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
