Sunday 22 November · 15:00 · 12th matchday
Bologna – Udinese
Bologna
9th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.07
Udinese
19th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.32
Our model makes Bologna favourites for Bologna – Udinese, at 52%. Kick-off 22 November 2026, 15:00.
Across the full score distribution, Bologna win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Udinese win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.63 goals for Bologna and 1.02 for Udinese, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.63 for Bologna, 1.02 for Udinese.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Bologna wins; above it, Udinese wins.
| Bologna \ Udinese | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Bologna goals in rows, Udinese goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Bologna v Udinese?
Bologna, at 52%. The full split is Bologna 52%, draw 24%, Udinese 24%.
What is the most likely score in Bologna v Udinese?
1–1, which comes up in 11.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Bologna v Udinese?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.63 for Bologna and 1.02 for Udinese.
Will both teams score in Bologna v Udinese?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Bologna keep a clean sheet or Udinese fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
