Sunday 22 November · 20:45 · 12th matchday
Atalanta – Inter
Atalanta
13th · attack 1.30 · defence 1.09
Inter
2nd · attack 1.88 · defence 0.92
Our model makes Inter favourites for Atalanta – Inter, at 54%. Kick-off 22 November 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Atalanta win 25% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Inter win 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 9.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.31 goals for Atalanta and 2.04 for Inter, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 64%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.31 for Atalanta, 2.04 for Inter.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Atalanta wins; above it, Inter wins.
| Atalanta \ Inter | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Atalanta goals in rows, Inter goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Atalanta v Inter?
Inter, at 54%. The full split is Atalanta 25%, draw 21%, Inter 54%.
What is the most likely score in Atalanta v Inter?
1–2, which comes up in 9.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Atalanta v Inter?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 1.31 for Atalanta and 2.04 for Inter.
Will both teams score in Atalanta v Inter?
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. Atalanta keep a clean sheet or Inter fail to score in the remaining 36%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Tuesday 3 November. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
