Friday 30 October · 21:00 · 11th matchday
Villarreal – Espanyol
Villarreal
9th · attack 1.51 · defence 1.04
Espanyol
11th · attack 0.97 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Villarreal favourites for Villarreal – Espanyol, at 65%. Kick-off 30 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Villarreal win 65% of the time, the draw comes up 19% and Espanyol win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.8% of simulations.
We expect 2.22 goals for Villarreal and 1.01 for Espanyol, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.22 for Villarreal, 1.01 for Espanyol.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Villarreal wins; above it, Espanyol wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Villarreal goals in rows, Espanyol goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Villarreal v Espanyol?
Villarreal, at 65%. The full split is Villarreal 65%, draw 19%, Espanyol 16%.
What is the most likely score in Villarreal v Espanyol?
2–1, which comes up in 9.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Villarreal v Espanyol?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 2.22 for Villarreal and 1.01 for Espanyol.
Will both teams score in Villarreal v Espanyol?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Villarreal keep a clean sheet or Espanyol fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 10 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
