Saturday 31 October · 18:30 · 11th matchday
Real Betis – Málaga
Real Betis
4th · attack 1.22 · defence 0.93
Málaga
19th · attack 0.56 · defence 1.18
Our model makes Real Betis favourites for Real Betis – Málaga, at 71%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, Real Betis win 71% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Málaga win 9%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 16.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.93 goals for Real Betis and 0.52 for Málaga, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 35%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.93 for Real Betis, 0.52 for Málaga.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Real Betis wins; above it, Málaga wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 16 | 9 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 6 | 1 |
Real Betis goals in rows, Málaga goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Real Betis v Málaga?
Real Betis, at 71%. The full split is Real Betis 71%, draw 20%, Málaga 9%.
What is the most likely score in Real Betis v Málaga?
1–0, which comes up in 16.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Real Betis v Málaga?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 70% of the time. Expected goals are 1.93 for Real Betis and 0.52 for Málaga.
Will both teams score in Real Betis v Málaga?
Both teams score in 35% of simulations. Real Betis keep a clean sheet or Málaga fail to score in the remaining 65%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
