Saturday 31 October · 16:15 · 11th matchday
Rayo Vallecano – Celta de Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
10th · attack 0.91 · defence 0.98
Celta de Vigo
15th · attack 1.12 · defence 1.01
Our model makes Rayo Vallecano favourites for Rayo Vallecano – Celta de Vigo, at 39%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 16:15.
Across the full score distribution, Rayo Vallecano win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Celta de Vigo win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.23 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.09 for Celta de Vigo, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.23 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.09 for Celta de Vigo.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rayo Vallecano wins; above it, Celta de Vigo wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Rayo Vallecano goals in rows, Celta de Vigo goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rayo Vallecano v Celta de Vigo?
Rayo Vallecano, at 39%. The full split is Rayo Vallecano 39%, draw 28%, Celta de Vigo 32%.
What is the most likely score in Rayo Vallecano v Celta de Vigo?
1–1, which comes up in 13.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rayo Vallecano v Celta de Vigo?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 68% of the time. Expected goals are 1.23 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.09 for Celta de Vigo.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano v Celta de Vigo?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet or Celta de Vigo fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
