Sunday 1 November · 16:15 · 11th matchday
Racing Santander – Real Madrid
Racing Santander
15th · attack 1.23 · defence 1.99
Real Madrid
4th · attack 1.70 · defence 0.74
Our model makes Real Madrid favourites for Racing Santander – Real Madrid, at 78%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 16:15.
Across the full score distribution, Racing Santander win 10% of the time, the draw comes up 12% and Real Madrid win 78%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–3, in 7.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.22 goals for Racing Santander and 3.38 for Real Madrid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 84% of the time and both teams scoring 68%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.22 for Racing Santander, 3.38 for Real Madrid.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Racing Santander wins; above it, Real Madrid wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Racing Santander goals in rows, Real Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Racing Santander v Real Madrid?
Real Madrid, at 78%. The full split is Racing Santander 10%, draw 12%, Real Madrid 78%.
What is the most likely score in Racing Santander v Real Madrid?
1–3, which comes up in 7.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Racing Santander v Real Madrid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 84% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 94% of the time. Expected goals are 1.22 for Racing Santander and 3.38 for Real Madrid.
Will both teams score in Racing Santander v Real Madrid?
Both teams score in 68% of simulations. Racing Santander keep a clean sheet or Real Madrid fail to score in the remaining 32%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
