Saturday 31 October · 14:00 · 11th matchday
Levante – Atlético de Madrid
Levante
17th · attack 1.09 · defence 1.23
Atlético de Madrid
2nd · attack 1.47 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Atlético de Madrid favourites for Levante – Atlético de Madrid, at 51%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Levante win 25% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Atlético de Madrid win 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.21 goals for Levante and 1.81 for Atlético de Madrid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.21 for Levante, 1.81 for Atlético de Madrid.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Levante wins; above it, Atlético de Madrid wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Levante goals in rows, Atlético de Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Levante v Atlético de Madrid?
Atlético de Madrid, at 51%. The full split is Levante 25%, draw 23%, Atlético de Madrid 51%.
What is the most likely score in Levante v Atlético de Madrid?
1–1, which comes up in 10.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Levante v Atlético de Madrid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.21 for Levante and 1.81 for Atlético de Madrid.
Will both teams score in Levante v Atlético de Madrid?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Levante keep a clean sheet or Atlético de Madrid fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
