Sunday 1 November · 14:00 · 11th matchday
Getafe – Sevilla
Getafe
14th · attack 0.69 · defence 0.82
Sevilla
5th · attack 1.02 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Getafe favourites for Getafe – Sevilla, at 38%. Kick-off 1 November 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Getafe win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 33% and Sevilla win 29%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–0, in 16.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.01 goals for Getafe and 0.84 for Sevilla, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 28% of the time and both teams scoring 37%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.01 for Getafe, 0.84 for Sevilla.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Getafe wins; above it, Sevilla wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 16 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Getafe goals in rows, Sevilla goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Getafe v Sevilla?
Getafe, at 38%. The full split is Getafe 38%, draw 33%, Sevilla 29%.
What is the most likely score in Getafe v Sevilla?
0–0, which comes up in 16.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Getafe v Sevilla?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 28% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 56% of the time. Expected goals are 1.01 for Getafe and 0.84 for Sevilla.
Will both teams score in Getafe v Sevilla?
Both teams score in 37% of simulations. Getafe keep a clean sheet or Sevilla fail to score in the remaining 63%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 12 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
