Saturday 31 October · 21:00 · 11th matchday
FC Barcelona – Deportivo Alavés
FC Barcelona
1st · attack 2.12 · defence 0.78
Deportivo Alavés
6th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.02
Our model makes FC Barcelona favourites for FC Barcelona – Deportivo Alavés, at 81%. Kick-off 31 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, FC Barcelona win 81% of the time, the draw comes up 12% and Deportivo Alavés win 6%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 10.9% of simulations.
We expect 2.92 goals for FC Barcelona and 0.74 for Deportivo Alavés, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 71% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.92 for FC Barcelona, 0.74 for Deportivo Alavés.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Barcelona wins; above it, Deportivo Alavés wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
FC Barcelona goals in rows, Deportivo Alavés goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Barcelona v Deportivo Alavés?
FC Barcelona, at 81%. The full split is FC Barcelona 81%, draw 12%, Deportivo Alavés 6%.
What is the most likely score in FC Barcelona v Deportivo Alavés?
2–0, which comes up in 10.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Barcelona v Deportivo Alavés?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 71% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 2.92 for FC Barcelona and 0.74 for Deportivo Alavés.
Will both teams score in FC Barcelona v Deportivo Alavés?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. FC Barcelona keep a clean sheet or Deportivo Alavés fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 11 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
